With an appreciation of 152 percent, bitcoin was not among the fastest growing cryptoassets last year. Where will its price be at the end of this year?
Despite a relatively long period between March and October of last year, when bitcoin was not traded much and the price stagnated with exceptions, it ended the year above the price of 42 thousand dollars — at the beginning of the year it was not even seventeen. It jumped more than seven percent into the new year and crossed the $45,000 mark, the price last reached in April 2022.
Before Wednesday’s correction wiped out the gains, the best-known cryptocurrency was heading in the opposite direction to, for example, the famous S&P 500 stock index, which, on the other hand, is taking a break from last year’s growth. It would be difficult to find the main reason for the New Year’s growth in the long-awaited reversal of the current monetary policy of the American central bank.
Another catalyst for growth may have been continued speculation about the possible approval of the first spot bitcoin ETF in the United States. According to unverifiable market speculation, the US Securities and Exchange Commission could approve it before the January 10 statutory deadline by which it must make a decision.
A number of companies, both newly and historically, are seeking approval, among which two global giants in the field of asset management stand out: BlackRock and Fidelity. Many market players consider the approval almost a foregone conclusion, and companies are starting to launch expensive marketing campaigns to make Bitcoin cool again for a mainstream audience.
However, there have already been voices that the impact of the approval on the market may not be so optimistic in the long term, and the event itself may trigger a wave of sell-offs, as the positive outlook that one could cling to suddenly disappears.
Analysts at the largest US bank JPMorgan, led by Nikos Panigirtzoglou, say that instead of new capital entering the sector, capital from existing bitcoin products such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), bitcoin futures ETFs and listed mining companies is more likely to move to newly approved spot ETF funds.
After all, the approval of the first European spot bitcoin ETF funds had a minimal market impact — but American pension funds could not invest in them. The fact remains that while the price of Bitcoin is rising comfortably, the rise in stablecoins (cryptoassets with a price pegged to individual fiat currencies), usually indicative of an influx of new money into Bitcoin and crypto, is not yet happening.
What Bitcoin price scenarios do expert voices from the crypto world predict?
Mark Mobius: $60,000
A global investor, fund manager Mobius Capital Partners and one of the pioneers of investing in developing markets correctly predicted the fall of Bitcoin to twenty thousand dollars the year before last. The most famous cryptocurrency at that time cost more than 28,000 thousand. However, the subsequent call predicting a drop to ten thousand did not work out for him.
For this year, the matador of developing markets is betting on a price of sixty thousand dollars at the end of this year, according to CNBC. «There is no rational justification for it, but the approval of the first Bitcoin spot ETF looks very likely and the asset is also enjoying increased interest again,» he states.
Standard Chartered: $100,000
The British banking group predicted the growth of Bitcoin to 100 thousand dollars by the end of the year already last April. It didn’t work out that time, this year the banking house claims that growth will be driven forward by the approval of the mentioned ETFs. This is an interesting shift from December 2022, when Head of Research and Strategy Eric Robertsen predicted that the price of Bitcoin could fall as low as $5,000.
Bit Mining: up to 75 thousand dollars
Youwei Yang, chief economist at the listed mining company, offers a more sober estimate. According to CNBC, he hopes that the price of the most famous cryptocurrency could reach up to 75 thousand dollars by the end of the year.
But his prediction includes a fairly wide price spread. «I predict that Bitcoin will trade between $25,000 and $75,000 this year, and $45,000 to $130,000 in 2025,» Yang said.
The growth, he says, is largely driven by the approval of the first spot bitcoin ETFs in the US and the resulting greater institutional interest.
CoinShares: $80K
According to the European crypto asset manager, CoinShares, a significant change awaits us in the field of digital assets this year, which is set to start with the approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US.
“The long-awaited development will expand the investor base for cryptocurrencies and integrate them more into traditional financial markets. About a 20 percent increase in investment for our current assets under management, which are roughly $3 billion, suggests that Bitcoin could be looking at $80,000 this year,» says James Butterfill, head of research.
CoinFund: $500K
Most of the forecasts are in a way still on the ground and do not anticipate as rapid an appreciation as in older cycles. But we will find exceptions, and one of them is the venture capital fund CoinFund.
According to managing partner Seth Ginns, the main thing that will drive the price of bitcoin up is a weakening dollar and falling interest rates. An additional engine of growth should then be the approval of American spot ETF funds for bitcoin and, later in the year, also for ether.
Ginns does not rule out that Bitcoin could touch the value of one million dollars in the coming cycle, but he offers a «more sober» estimate of $500 thousand for this year.
