Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings shocked investors a year ago when he said the UAE was “the most exciting new market to open in decades.” Outside of Egypt and Lebanon, casinos are virtually nonexistent in the Middle East , as Muslim-majority countries typically ban gambling. Even more intriguing: At the time Billings was excited about the future of gambling in the UAE, the kingdom had exactly zero casinos. It didn’t even have a gaming authority.
But by then Wynn had already rolled the dice in the United Arab Emirates . In 2022, the company announced an ambitious new project: a $3.9 billion luxury “integrated resort” located on an artificial barrier islet in the emirate of Ras Al Khaimah, also known as RAK. Plans called for a gleaming hotel tower with 1,500 high-end rooms and suites , as well as private villas in the marina adjacent to the resort. It would feature 24 restaurants and lounges, a spa, a beach club, a 3.6-hectare pool area, a luxury shopping promenade, multiple entertainment venues, and state-of-the-art nightly light and laser shows. From the start, the designs included a gaming floor, though at the time Wynn did not yet have a casino license.
Billings’ gamble paid off last month, when the UAE’s General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) awarded Wynn the first commercial gaming operator license in the Emirates. Notably, the casino is just the beginning of gambling in the UAE. The fledgling gaming authority also recently green-lit its first national lottery and is also preparing to launch a regulated iGaming market, which encompasses sports betting and any wagering on a future outcome.
Wynn’s initial bet on the UAE now looks like a winner. But it was actually a huge risk, considering that the GCGRA was only formed after Wynn had already committed to building. “Wynn has been telling us all along that they were very confident they were going to get this license, but then it took them a while,” says Chad Beynon, a senior analyst covering gaming, lodging and theatres for Macquarie Capital. “Meanwhile, they were building this property. If they had never gotten that license, that would have been hugely damaging to shareholders.”
Wynn Al Marjan, which is slated to open in 2027, is a joint venture between Wynn and RAK Hospitality Holding, which is chaired by the emirate’s crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Saud bin Saqr Al Qasimi, 37. Wynn Resorts owns 40% of the Al Marjan project. According to SEC filings, the company invested $455 million through the first nine months of 2024, bringing its year-to-date spending to $533 million. Wynn’s remaining 40% prorated share of the required capital is between $800 million and $875 million , the company’s chief financial officer, Julie Cameron-Doe, told investors on Monday’s third-quarter earnings conference call. That would bring Wynn’s total projected investment in the project to about $1.4 billion.
Significantly, Wynn has not associated himself with one of the UAE’s two economic powerhouses, Abu Dhabi or Dubai, but with the much lesser-known Ras Al Khaimah. The northernmost of the seven emirates, RAK has a GDP of $11.5 billion, just 2% of the value of all goods and services produced in the UAE. Slightly larger than South Carolina, RAK is bordered to the north and east by Oman, and to the south by the emirate of Umm Al Quwain. Its name roughly translates as “the head of the tent,” where archaeologists have found signs of civilization dating back 7,000 years. Today, the emirate’s main economic driver is RAK Ceramics, a company that produces 123 million square metres of tiles and 5 million units of what are euphemistically known as “sanitary ware” (sinks, bathtubs, toilets), translating to $545 million in revenue per year. That figure is expected to be eclipsed by Wynn Al Marjan once it launches.
“Based on what Wynn has communicated to us,” Beynon says, “their emirate is very business-friendly.” He speculates that it’s much easier for Wynn to work with RAK simply because there are fewer local stakeholders who could potentially challenge the project. To put it in perspective, Beynon mentions a closer example. “Miami wanted to get a casino license for the last 20 years,” he says. “ And Disney would object . The convention centers in Miami would object. The restaurants and hotels would object. I think that’s the risk in Dubai and Abu Dhabi . They’re already established with tens of billions of dollars of investment from others.”
When the resort opens in three years, Wynn Al Marjan will be a litmus test for whether casinos succeed in the UAE. “The way I look at it is this,” Billings told investors on a third-quarter earnings call last week. “There’s really no proper integrated resort on that half of the planet, OK? So the closest thing is going to be in Asia — Singapore or Macau .” He then highlighted the huge population within an eight-hour flight of the UAE. “There are 86 million airlifts into Dubai airport, and we’re about 55 minutes down one of three six-lane highways from Dubai airport.”
“And then you have 10 million people locally, nine million of whom are non-Emiratis and therefore able to play,” Billings continued. Indeed, expats make up about 88% of the UAE’s population, putting the kingdom second only to the Vatican in the ratio of expats to nationals. About 70% of the country’s foreign population comes from South Asia (especially India, Bangladesh and Pakistan) or Egypt.
“We are confident that the resort will be a must-visit tourist destination in the UAE and expect it to support strong long-term free cash flow growth,” Billings told investors last week, adding that construction on the hotel has already reached the 24th floor, making Wynn Al Marjan the tallest building in RAK . (When completed, the 300-meter hotel tower will be the 19th-tallest in the UAE, and about a third the height of Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, the tallest tower in the world.)
Billings has said he thinks the UAE will be a $3 billion to $5 billion gaming market , and that Wynn should have a two- to three-year head start before other rival casino operators enter the region. Beynon considers that a conservative estimate. “At this point, they might have a five-year head start,” he says, noting that MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle recently applied for a UAE casino license in Abu Dhabi.
“The way it will work is the federal government, the Abu Dhabi government, will approve it,” Hornbuckle told a crowd at the Skift Global Forum in September. “We’ve requested something there and we hope to win something there. Then each ruler will have their say. It’s like a state, where each state says yes or no.”
Some have compared what’s happening in the UAE to the Middle East building a Las Vegas , but Beynon sees a better analogy in Japan, which is on track to welcome its first casino by 2030. Just as the UAE is opening up to gambling, Japan is also ending its long-standing ban on gambling. And just like in the Emirates, if American casino operators want to break into the Japanese market, they must first partner with local partners. Osaka Integrated Resort, or Osaka IR, is a $233 million hotel-casino to be built on Yumeshima, an artificial island in Osaka Bay. The project is a joint venture between MGM Resorts and Orix , a Japanese financial services group, with each party owning a 40% stake. The remaining 20% is split among 22 other companies, including Panasonic Holdings and West Japan Railway.
Much like how American casinos in the UAE are forced to partner with their emirate’s leader, Japan’s regional rivalries also serve to limit competition. “Every [casino company] operating in a city or region is essentially competing against every other company within that city or region,” Beynon explains. “And then there are the local winners.” Indeed. Osaka IR is projected to bring in $3.6 billion in annual revenue, with roughly 80% of that coming from casino operations.
